My Analysis of the Overthrow of Syria and it’s Effect on the Middle East – It has come true!

Last December 2024, we learned that the rebels in Syria had toppled the longtime dictator and President Basher Assad.
I predicted at the time (see my analysis below) that it would precipitate chaos and the slaughter of the Christians. The media is not telling us the extent and the horror of the slaughter in Syria, where it is even reported by some that Christians are being crucified.

Well, look at the news this week!

My Analysis of the Fall of Assad in Syria and the Implications, especially for Christians (Dec. 10, 2024)
 
Syria’s President Assad was a dictator who controlled Syria like Saddam Hussein had used brutality to keep public order in Iraq. Both were ruthless dictators, but in general protected the Christians.
 
The Arabs in the Middle East are tribal. For the most part, they don’t understand or desire democracy. They have tribes with chiefs.
 
When Saddam Hussein (the big chief) fell, Iraq turned into chaos with competing Muslim fanatical groups — a bunch of “tribes with little chiefs” — fighting for control. The most radical Muslim groups won out. Look at the rampage of ISIS.
 
I anticipate the same happening in Syria. Assad was secular, educated, and somewhat predictable. He kept order and balance between the various tribes. Israel and the rest of the world had a leader they could anticipate.
 
His replacement(s) will have no unity, and be hysterically religious Muslims and uneducated warlords. They will divide Syria up into competing Sunni and Shia factions. And of course, like in Iraq, the Christians will be the first to suffer. It was also repeated with Mubarak in Egypt and Qaddafi in Libya.
 
For Israel, President Assad, even though an enemy, offered some governmental stability and was somewhat predictable. Russia and Iran used him as a puppet, but things were relatively stable. He allowed Iran to smuggle arms into Lebanon which will certainly end now.
 
But now that he’s gone the Sunni Muslims from Turkey will try to take Iran and Russia’s place controlling Syria, which is probably no better than Iran and Russia.
 
For Israel, they were fighting on three fronts (Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the West Bank) which have all been emasculated along with Iran. Trump coming into office is already expected to put the squeeze on the wars in the Middle East and elsewhere.
 
The downfall of the Assad Regime now opens a fourth front for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the Golan Heights along the Syrian border. Israel is now working to establish a buffer zone with Syria and destroying Assad’s weapon deposits and chemical weapons plants that existed in Syria so they don’t fall into the hands of the rebel groups.
 
My initial inclination is that it will be unpredictable for a while. But we can expect Syria to be in chaos. Christians will be threatened. Hamas is defeated, Hezbollah severely weakened (decimated) and Israel has been doing in the Middle East what no one else had the courage or ability to do confronting the evil of Iran along with its proxies
 
I hope I am wrong, but precedent with other rebel takeovers and consulting some Middle East associates suggest that my assessment is probably correct. Please pray especially for the dwindling Christian population and the protection of the churches and the holy sites.
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Two friends with a stake in the situation reply:
Dear Steve,
Just read your assessment of the Syrian situation. As one born in Baghdad, with Lebanese citizenship before immigrating to the US, & having lived through 3 coups, Iraq, Lebanon & Iran ( ousting of the Shah), I agree with your assessment 200%. There is no future for us Christians in the Middle East & hasn’t been for a long time. I worry about the Holy sites in the Holy land (Israel), & hope that as long as Israel exists they will protect them.
In Christ
V.
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Thank you for sharing your analysis and reflections on the situation in Syria and the broader region. I fully agree with the points you’ve raised, with the critical caveat that the opposition movement in Syria does not turn into a fanatic group intent on targeting and eradicating the Christian presence in the region. Such a development would undoubtedly have dire consequences for the already vulnerable Christian community in Syria.

You are correct in drawing parallels between Assad’s regime and Saddam Hussein’s governance in Iraq. Both maintained a semblance of order and, to some extent, protected minorities, including Christians. The chaos that followed Saddam’s fall serves as a stark warning of the risks Syria might face without a unifying, albeit authoritarian, leadership.

Your observations about the potential fragmentation of Syria into competing Sharia factions and the implications for Christians are, unfortunately, quite plausible. History has shown that in such power vacuums, extremist groups often rise to prominence, resulting in instability and persecution of minorities.

For Israel, the shifting dynamics in Syria indeed present new challenges and uncertainties. While Assad was a known quantity with predictable policies, his potential successors, driven by factional and religious fervor, might bring even more volatility to the region.

It’s a complex and evolving situation, and I miss our in-depth discussions about such topics as well. Hopefully, we’ll have the chance to share insights over a meal again soon.

Warm regards,
Amer

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